The Statistical Reconstruction of the Past: Drawing 
    Inferences Independently of Phylogeny
Mark Pagel 
   Division of Zoology 
        School of Animal & Microbial Sciences 
        PO Box 228, University of Reading 
        READING, RG6 6AJ 
    m.pagel@reading.ac.uk

I shall discuss how to use statistcial models of evolution to arrive at probabilitic inferences about the most likely ancestral character states of genes, proteins, or other traits that organisms may have had millions of years ago.  Such inferences must always be drawn with respect to a probable genealogy or phylogeny of the organisms. And yet, it is desirable to make the final inference independent of any one phylogenetic hypothesis, which itself may be flawed.  I show how markov-chain monte carlo techniques make this possible, and how they make it possible to assess independent evidence for the truth of one's inferences about the past. 

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